Forex Seasonality in May forecasts Dollar Rebound After April Selloff

Summary:

– May has produced strongest monthly performance for USD in QE era. May marks the best month of the year for the US Dollar after the seasonally worst month.

– Australian Dollar, Euro have typically led underperformers. The commodity currencies have typically rallied slumped during May.

– Variation of returns is higher than other months; volatility is common.

For May, we continue to focus on the period of 2005 to 2016. The small sample size is not ideal, and we recognize that there is increased statistical stability with using longer time periods. However, because of the specific uniqueness of the past twelve years relative to any other time period in market history – the era of quantitative easing – we’ve elected to attempt to increase the stability of the estimates with the shorter time period.

May is a bearish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to its inconsistent performance metrics. The pair has lost ground 55% of the time in May over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was -76-pips per month. Recently, EUR/USD has fallen in May in six consecutive years.

From a seasonality perspective, May is a very bearish month for AUD/USD. The pair has depreciated 70% of the time in May over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was -122-pips per month. Recently, AUD/USD has lost ground in five of the past six years.

 

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April Forex Seasonality Sees USD Weakness versus AUD, GBP, NZD, CAD and EUR

Summary:

– In April, it’s typical to see the US Dollar decline; this year, the greenback has been weaker than seasonality suggests.

– DXY weakness, seasonally, can be attributed to its largest component, the Euro (57.6% of weighting).

-It’s expected to see an increase in commodity and energy prices, especially gold and oil.

At the beginning of the month it’s time to review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past decade. For April, we are going to investigate the period of 2005 to 2016 in recognition of the evolving relationship between economic data, central banks, and financial markets.

The longer observation period captures several crisis events/periods that traders may find analogous to events unfolding today, even as the ramifications from Brexit are unclear: the US tech bubble; the US housing bubble; the global commodity bubble; and previous rate hiking and rate cutting cycles, from the major central banks, during times normal (pre-2008) or extraordinary (post-2008).

Monthly log return

As we can see for April, the dollar is pretty weak relative to other major currencies, this year, the greenback has been weaker than seasonality suggests since the market has priced in Fed March interest rate hike for the first time in 2017, the investors have digested the news and they are selling the fact now in the following month. It’s expected to see a weak dollar until next FOMC meeting.

It’s also expected to see an increase in commodity and energy prices, especially gold and oil. The currency behind gold and oil is Aussie and Loonie respectively. We see these two currencies are strong in April.

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向ivy fund学习portfolio management

向哈佛,耶鲁基金会学习portfolio management读书mindmap。

The Ivy Portfolio shows step-by-step how to track and mimic the investment strategies of the highly successful Harvard and Yale endowments. Using the endowment Policy Portfolios as a guide, the authors illustrate how an investor can develop a strategic asset allocation using an ETF-based investment approach.

The Ivy Portfolio also reveals a novel method for investors to reduce their risk through a tactical asset allocation strategy to protect them from bear markets. The book will also showcase a method to follow the smart money and piggyback the top hedge funds and their stock-picking abilities. With readable, straightforward advice, The Ivy Portfolio will show investors exactly how this can be accomplished—and allow them to achieve an unparalleled level of investment success in the process.

portfolio-management

 

下一步计划:

  1. 按照ivy portfolio策略,选择ETF。
  2. 根据Markovitz modern theory确立各ETF 权重。
  3. 建立回测模型。

新手如何开始健身,健身书籍推荐

春节已经过完,老人眼里的过年关现在似乎又有新一层的意思,以往的年关意味着荷包受苦难,现代人过“年关”意味着身体的高负荷运转,睡眠,饮食,生活规律受到各种挑战,让人焦虑的春运,各类亲朋好友聚会,无节制的聚餐,环境的噪声。受到上面种种影响,身体像一块红色的电池,急需重新充电。

这个时候,很多人希望通过新的健身计划来调整自己的身体状态,他们希望通过健身来消耗掉肚子和大腿上一层脂肪,希望一周之内瘦上5斤,或者一个月有马甲线,可是据我4年以来在健身房的观察,大部分在新年附近开始的健身计划往往虎头蛇尾,很难持续坚持下去,可能80%的人在2月份的第一个星期就放弃健身计划了。这里面的原因有很多,部分原因可能是没有掌握到合理的健身知识,所以不如先把健身计划放一放,学习给自己一个正确的Mind setting,了解一下如何健身,以及相关的知识,因为健身确实是一项有技术的Dumbwork。

健身先健脑,如何避免在健身中犯错误,你就已经避免站到健身失败的队伍中了。新人牢记两点:

  1. keep the ego at the corner.
  2. process is more important than progress.

在这里推荐两本书,我认为对系统了解健身有非常大的帮助,《肌肉健美训练图解》和《阿诺德施瓦辛格健身全书》,顺便把《阿诺德施瓦辛格健身全书》的思维导图放上来。阿诺德·施瓦辛格是世界上赢得健美头衔最多的人,《施瓦辛格健身全书》包含健身所有方面的一切知识,从健身的基础理论、对训练中各种因素的分析、适合各个阶段的训练计划,到对身体各个部位的分析、各种练习动作的详细讲解和对身体薄弱区域的改善建议,最后还有关于如何安排饮食和营养计划、如何避免和处理受伤的详细内容。

了解如何开始健身,想像传奇人物站在你旁边给你面授知识,是不是很鼓舞士气啊。%e6%96%bd%e7%93%a6%e8%be%9b%e6%a0%bc%e5%81%a5%e8%ba%ab%e5%85%a8%e4%b9%a6%e6%96%bd%e7%93%a6%e8%be%9b%e6%a0%bc%e5%81%a5%e8%ba%ab%e5%85%a8%e4%b9%a6

 

30天肖像素描挑战

comparison.jpg

在2016年9月,我做了一个30天的挑战,想看看我在肖像画上面能有多少的提升。

接下来我将解释为什么我要挑战这个项目,我学习到了什么技术以及对其它学习的启发。

08272016 08292016

上面是三张肖画像的比较。首先第一张自我画像是我开始挑战以画的一张。对于我一个以前没有任何绘画基础的人来说,在开始挑战之前画这张画是如此的沮丧,因为我以前的绘画水平还停留在十岁画小树和房子的阶段。

其次是我开始挑战之后的第一画像,这一张画是凭记忆画出的某人的肖像,结果证明记忆是多么的糟糕。在这之后,我花了大约10个小时学习了通过右脑来绘画一般的绘画技巧。

最后一张这是我约30天练习之后的作品,一边对着我的模特一边画。

挑战安排

时间

我决定安排一个固定的时间,每天1个小时,周一至周六,来完成这个项目。我没有在项目中维持一个固定的时间表(我相信这是一个错误)。临近项目结束时,因为需要集中精力在画画上,再加上我是一个很难长时间坚持在一个兴趣上的人,我发现很难维持每天花时间在这个项目上,所以我不确定将来我是否还会花很多时间在画画上面。

技术

绘制肖像可以有许多方法。其中有一些非常好还可以快速的达到必要的感知过程。例如,用纸蒙在照片上拷贝线条可能会产生印象深刻的结果,但是这对于提升自己的绘画能力是不会有太大帮助的,只能在初期使用一下。

出于这个原因,我决定放弃这种方法,如用一个网格取景器来绘图,然后按比例临摹到纸上。然而我并不忽视任何使用这些技术的人,我相信所有的技术都同样有效,但这种技术我觉得并不会使我的技术在我的挑战过程中得到提高。

材料

在整个过程中我并没有使用太多复杂的工具,有的只是一个画板,常用的铅笔,基本上都是普通的工具,但是我相信很多复杂的技术,像画阴影,调色,这里面会用到一些我目前还没学精的工具使用方法。

挑战过程

一开始我每天都画,一般用一小时。在这个过程中,我同时花了一些休息时间学习了通过右脑来绘画一般的绘画技巧,这是一种能迅速激发出自己绘画潜力的技术,当时我难以致信地看到自己的转变和飞速的成长,兴奋的简直快要跳了起来。

我将通过以下几张画来证明这种方法是多么的神奇。

08292016_2.JPG
酒糟凤爪

08292016_3.JPG

08302016_2.JPG

这是在学习右脑绘画技术的过程中相临两天画的,我竟然在前面还是画酒糟凤爪的水平,后面立马不可思议的临摹出了一幅毕加索的作品,和一个威风的骑士。

在这之后,我又学习了UDEMY的一门网络课程Vitruvian Studios on portrait drawing,整个课程有三十节,后面的课程我感觉上起来比较吃力,原因是一些绘画工具我没有(又犯了一个老错误,觉得后面的不会就放过了)。它教会了我三角定位和了解人体解剖对于绘画的作用。

挑战作品

重复挑战

如果有人想重复我的挑战我会做出什么改变?

这里是我的建议:

  1. 如果你只有有限的绘画能力,或者疏离它已经有一段时间了,我建议首先学习如何利用右脑来绘画。这个过程可以让初学者学到初级的绘画技巧。我跟着这个过程发现它非常有用(见第一和第二的画像之间的改善)。
  2. 如果你已经有一定的绘画能力,我会先学习Vitruvian Studios on portrait drawing课程。虽然该技术有点复杂,会按条理教你怎么画肖像,但是这个课程会教授绘制肖像的良好基础,因而它不是速写为服务的。

最后,这个项目的设计是基于我个人的实际情况,我没有绘画基础,但是我对新鲜事物比较有兴趣,也有毅力,它结合了我个人的长处和短处。因此我认为要注意使用的原则,但在具体情况取决于你自己的长处和短处并灵活应用它们,这样更重要。

 

Super week

candidates for this important week, EUR, AUD, JPY

EUR is about to cut interest rate.

AUD is in the pattern of bottom and shoulders.

JPY facing lazy W.

The US index is facing a option, if falls below 79, then will goto 76, or it will still be in range.

I believe what I see, not what I hear.