– May has produced strongest monthly performance for USD in QE era. May marks the best month of the year for the US Dollar after the seasonally worst month.
– Australian Dollar, Euro have typically led underperformers. The commodity currencies have typically rallied slumped during May.
– Variation of returns is higher than other months; volatility is common.
For May, we continue to focus on the period of 2005 to 2016. The small sample size is not ideal, and we recognize that there is increased statistical stability with using longer time periods. However, because of the specific uniqueness of the past twelve years relative to any other time period in market history – the era of quantitative easing – we’ve elected to attempt to increase the stability of the estimates with the shorter time period.
May is a bearish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to its inconsistent performance metrics. The pair has lost ground 55% of the time in May over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was -76-pips per month. Recently, EUR/USD has fallen in May in six consecutive years.
From a seasonality perspective, May is a very bearish month for AUD/USD. The pair has depreciated 70% of the time in May over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was -122-pips per month. Recently, AUD/USD has lost ground in five of the past six years.
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The US index is facing a option, if falls below 79, then will goto 76, or it will still be in range.
I believe what I see, not what I hear.
The Ukraine situation is getting worse, Putin is trying to occupy the Crimea by force, which causes the global market violate. Money starts rushing to safe heaven like CHF and JPY, the U.S 10 years bond’s price surges, the yield tumbled to 2.57% at the same time. This news is bad for the U.S dollars because it increases uncertainty to the recovery of American economy, especially the bad weather has caused big trouble for the economic data in the recent three months.
The winner is British pounds and the loser is Canadian looney. Winner still gains and the loser keeps losing.
In this week several big report will be released, including the Australian Bank interest rate, European Central Bank interest rate and the Britain bank interest rate. The market is expecting the ECB to rate cut, so we will watch that news, besides of this, the whole market is untradeable under the sideways quiet condition, it will keep oscillating unless US dollar index break 78 or 81.5.